Unfulfilled Promises: The State of the Social Contract in the 21st Century

· There is a clear hierarchy: the Nordic countries clearly lead the way in terms of fulfilling the social contract, followed by Western European countries, with Post-Communist and Southern Europe trailing behind.

· But there is a convergence in the overall score between the four groups of countries, with the Southern and Post-Communist groups catching up.

· Progress on social contract has stalled in Western and Northern Europe, with overall scores in 2024 no higher than they were in 2019 in Western Europe, and as far back as 2014 in Nordic countries. In particular we can see a decline starting in 2021 in both regions.

· In Southern Europe we do see improvements, although this may partly reflect a recovery since the financial crisis in 2008. Only in Post-Communist countries can we see a definite positive trend for pacts back as far as 2005.

· The most powerful countries in Europe do not fare particularly well: Germany ranks 13th, the United Kingdom 17th, and France 19th (out of 31).

Our analysis reveals important differences between the four pacts of the social contract:

· A Democratic pact on standby. While a large majority of Europeans consider that elections are free and fair and that the law applies equally to everyone, only a minority feel represented by the political sphere, feel they have a political voice, and trust national institutions. Three distinct groups emerge: the Nordic countries are well above the rest, the Western countries are in the middle, and the Southern and post-Communist countries are together at the bottom. The first two groups have seen no improvement, while the third has made slight progress.

· A Security pact that differs from that reflected in political debates. Few Europeans report feeling unsafe in their communities. On the contrary, many believe that foods containing chemicals are unhealthy for their health and the environment. The gaps between the four groups are small, with a slight upward trend for each of them.

· Work-welfare pact: a pillar that is still standing but could become fragile. For the work-welfare pact, there is a convergence between the four groups and similar dynamics: an increase during the first two-thirds of the period, followed by a decline since 2021. Several indicators explain this decline, which coincides with the post-COVID period: autonomy at work, proportion of working poor, recognition, and satisfaction of health needs. At the same time, there have been few notable improvements in the other indicators of this pact.

· Consumption pact: a driving force behind progress in the social contract… which is slowing down. There is convergence in the overall score between the four groups of countries, with the Southern and Post-Communist groups catching up. As of 2020, Western Europe has the highest average score on this pact. Many countries, including wealthier ones, struggle to keep personal debt down despite relatively high incomes.

The dashboard was developed from prior research on the historical evolution of the social contract and citizens’ current perspectives. Building on this, key concepts were identified and matched with indicators drawn from established frameworks and European surveys, then refined through two rounds of expert review. From an initial list of 73 indicators, 49 were ultimately selected based on data quality and relevance, covering four social contract pacts plus broader perceptions of societal progress.

The dashboard reflects how the social contract is conventionally understood today, rather than proposing a normative vision of what it should be. As a result, it excludes some outcomes often seen as important, such as biodiversity, work-life balance, or subjective wellbeing, which did not strongly emerge as core state responsibilities in the analysis. The aim of this study is not to define a new social contract, but to inform future citizen-led deliberation, while acknowledging that the dashboard is constrained by data availability and methodological limits.

That would be too simplistic. The social contract cannot simply be described as broken, but many of its core commitments are clearly failing. Across Europe, countries are missing targets on education, employment, poverty reduction, gender representation, and climate action, while median incomes are stagnating or falling in major economies. Public sentiment reflects this strain: only around a quarter of Europeans feel politically heard or trust institutions, and most believe their country is heading in the wrong direction.

Across Europe, many core promises of the social contract are no longer being met. High NEET rates, educational under-attainment, persistent greenhouse gas emissions, and widespread distrust in political institutions point to a growing gap between citizens and the state. Public sentiment reflects this strain: only around a quarter of Europeans feel politically heard or trust institutions, and most believe their country is heading in the wrong direction. Since 2021, this erosion has accelerated even in Western and Nordic countries, fuelled by overlapping crises and geopolitical insecurity, leaving most Europeans pessimistic about their children’s future. At the same time, citizens themselves acknowledge shortcomings, including tax avoidance, environmental harm, and weakened social cohesion.

Yet the European social contract is not beyond repair. Healthcare systems, public safety, and democratic procedures remain relatively strong, and the Work-Welfare Pact continues to be a central pillar, despite mounting pressures from inequality, climate constraints, and technological change. With growing recognition that the 20th-century model no longer fits 21st-century realities, the challenge now is to collectively redefine a fair and viable social contract. This requires inclusive public deliberation, genuine citizen participation, and governments willing to listen and act—before trust erodes further.